CHAPTER VI.-THE VALUE OF THE AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT.

In the preceding chapters an account has been given of the production of the crops and live stock in England and Wales, taking each individual item separately. Some portion, and in certain cases the whole, of the crops produced are merely raw material used as food for stock and turned into human food in the form of meat or milk. If account is to be taken of output in the latter form, then the production of the former must be neglected in order to avoid duplication. Moreover, in the case of one of the most extensive crops, viz., grass, there is no means by which the total production can be measured. In order, therefore, to get any general view of the total output of agricultural produce, it is necessary to estimate the quantities of the various products sold off the farms of the country for consumption elsewhere, and then, in order to add them together, to value them in terms of money. An estimate of this sort is necessarily a very broad one, as there are risks of error at every stage. On the other hand, these possible errors tend to balance one another and the final result is probably sufficiently approximate for the purpose in view.

In making this calculation, the first step is to differentiate between that part of the produce which is sold by the farmer (or consumed in the farm household) and that which is consumed on the farm in the process of producing other commodities such as meat and milk. For this purpose the agricultural land of England and Wales is taken in effect as one large farm, and no attempt is made to take into account the crops and stock sold by one farmer to another. Thus, the output, calculated in this way, is the estimated quantity of produce sold by farmers to the non-farming community, together with the quantity consumed in the farmers' own households. Table I in the Appendix gives on this basis the sales off farms of each kind of agricultural produce, together with their value based on the estimated average price realised at the point at which the produce is first sold, e.g., the local market for live stock, corn, dairy produce and fruit, the local auction for wool, the free-on-rail price for potatoes and milk and the in-rick price for hay and straw. These prices are taken in the main from the weekly returns made by the Ministry's market reporters and published in the Agricultural Market Report; for wool and glasshouse produce information as to values was obtained from growers. The proportions of each kind of produce sold off and retained on the farm respectively are based on estimates made by the Crop Reporters.

In the table below these results are summarised and the output values of the principal groups of produce in 1925 are given.

ESTIMATED VALUE OF THE AGRICULTURAL AND HORTICULTURAL PRODUCE SOLD OFF FARMS AND OTHER HOLDINGS, 1925.

About 35 per cent., or £79,000,000 of the total of £225,330,000 is accounted for by the sale of live stock. The production of live stock for meat is the most valuable section of agricultural production, whilst the second place is taken by the milk and dairy produce which, with an estimated selling value of £57,600,000, accounts for 26 per cent. of the whole. If to this we add poultry and eggs (£15,000,000) and wool (£3,000,000) we get an aggregate value of £155,000,000 for live stock and live-stock products, or nearly 69 per cent. of the total output of the agricultural industry. It will be understood that these figures, which represent the estimated sums received for the finished products, have to cover the cost of growing those corn, root and fodder crops used for feeding to stock. Consequently the value of the crops thus used is not included among the farm crops referred to in the next paragraph.

Among farm crops, the sale of corn is the largest source of revenue, the aggregate value of this group being £24,000,000, or 10.7 per cent. of the total value of all produce. Of this amount, wheat accounts for £12,070,000 and barley for £7,380,000, other smaller sums being obtained for oats, beans, peas, mixed corn and rye. In view of the importance which is usually attached to the corn crops as an item of farm economy it is a somewhat striking fact that their value (apart from their use for feeding to live stock) is only a little over 10 per cent. of the total of agricultural products. Apart from corn, the most important item in this group is potatoes, with a sale value of £11,830,000, or about the same as wheat taken alone. Hops account for £3,370,000, and hay, straw, sugar beet and some miscellaneous items for £6,760,000.

The third group of products comprises fruit, vegetables, flowers, &c., and these have an aggregate of £24,630,000, or practically 11 per cent. of the total. The value of the fruit crop is estimated at £9,700,000, vegetables at £8,400,000, glasshouse produce at £4,800,000, while flowers grown in the open, nursery stock and honey account for the balance.

Calculations on the above lines were made in 1908* and the information published in the previous report enables the following comparison to be made :

The change as between 1925 and 1908 is, of course, due partly to alterations in price and partly to increases and decreases in output. It is interesting to notice that the aggregate value of

* Full details in regard to the items included in 1908 are not available and the comparison is not exact in all cases. It is believed, however, to be approximately correct, except in the case of fruit, flowers, &c., which exclude glasshouse produce and honey in 1908.

nearly £225 millions reached in 1925 is 77 per cent. above the figure of £127 millions estimated in 1908, or if glasshouse produce and honey is omitted in 1925 the increase is 74 per cent. The average increase in prices over the same period was 77 per cent., so that it would seem that in the aggregate, after allowing for the rapid expansion of the glasshouse industry, the increases and decreases in output just about balanced one another, although during the intervening 17 years the area of agricultural land showed some reduction.

In order to eliminate the difficulty as to changing prices, and to compare the output of 1925 with that of the earlier year, the live-stock production of 1908 has been valued at the 1925 prices. In this table any revisions of the production figures for 1908 which have been mentioned as necessary in previous chapters have been made.

It will be seen that the total for live stock and live-stock products is approximately the same in the two years. The output of the live stock in 1925 is some 10 per cent. less, but dairy produce is higher by about 16 per cent. and poultry and eggs by 36 per cent. The marked fall in wool is, of course, the outcome of reduced flocks of sheep. It will be understood that the percentage changes given above differ somewhat from those given in the preceding chapter, mainly because the above calculation is based on the money value of various commodities added together, whereas Chapter V deals with output by weight or

number.

In the case of farm crops, a calculation on similar lines has hardly the same value, as it can only be applied to the proportion of farm crops not used for feeding to live stock on the farms, and thus is only a partial indication of any change in production. The quantity of farm crops sold off farms in 1925 was, however, smaller than in 1908, though the difference was probably not more than 10 or 11 per cent.

No very satisfactory comparisons can be made of the output of fruit, vegetables, flowers, &c., but it is believed that there has been a substantial increase in production since 1908.

The total value of the agricultural output of England and Wales in 1925, which has been estimated above at £225 millions, is equivalent to an average gross output of fully £8 10s. per acre on the total area under crops and permanent grass, after making allowance for the rough grazings on which a substantial proportion of the sheep flocks as well as some other stock are kept. In the report on the 1908 Census a similar figure was given which then worked out at £4 10s. per acre, but this applied to the whole of Great Britain.

These products are not, of course, entirely the output of the soil of this country alone. As already explained store stock imported for fattening in this country are treated as home-bred stock, while there are considerable purchases of corn offals, oil cakes and other feeding stuffs and also of artificial fertilisers either imported direct or manufactured from imported materials. It is not possible, however, to say what quantity of these feeding stuffs and fertilisers is used in England and Wales. At a later date the production of Great Britain will be available in the Industrial Census of Production and some rough approximation of the proportion used in England and Wales and in Scotland may be possible.