REPORT ON THE AGRICULTURAL CENSUS OF ENGLAND AND WALES, 1925.

CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION.

Agriculture differs from other industries in the possession of a longstanding system of annual statistics which provide much of the information which a census taken at infrequent intervals would normally supply. This information, though extensive, is not complete, and it has therefore been the practice in the years when industrial enquiries are made under the Census of Production Act to conduct a parallel enquiry in regard to the Agricultural Output. The first enquiry was made in 1908.* This was followed by a similar enquiry in 1913, but owing to the war the work was interrupted and the results were not completely analysed. The present census is the third of the series. It relates, however, exclusively to England and Wales, and not, as in 1908, to Great Britain.

The enquiries conducted in connection with the Census of Production are mainly confined to output, but on this occasion it seemed desirable to extend the scope of the Report so as to give in one volume a review of the available statistics relating to agriculture in England and Wales.

It has not been possible to include information as to the cost of production as particulars of general application are not available. Another point of interest which has necessarily been omitted is the relation between home production and total consumption, as the quantity of imported produce consumed in England and Wales alone cannot be stated. For the same reason

information cannot be given in regard to the quantities of fertilisers and feeding stuffs used. It may be possible at a later date to compile particulars on these subjects applicable to Great Britain as a whole.

At the outset, a brief description may be given of the methods by which the statistics are obtained. The value of the results naturally depends on the reliability of the methods, which have both their advantages and their limitations.

Methods of obtaining statistics.

Area of crops and number of live stock.-In Great Britain the area of crops and the number of live stock have been ascertained annually since 1867 by means of a return (commonly called

* The Agricultural Output of Great Britain. Report on Enquiries made by the Board of Agriculture and Fisheries in connection with the Census of Production Act, 1906, relating to the total output of Agricultural Land, the number of persons engaged and the motive power employed. (Cd. 6277.)

the Agricultural Schedule) filled up voluntarily by the occupiers of all holdings over one acre.* This method of obtaining direct returns in writing from the occupier is probably the most accurate and reliable method of obtaining information of this typeprovided the occupier is willing to supply the information and to take a little trouble in doing so. No one is in a better position than the actual occupier to state the area under the different crops growing on the farm or the number of live stock, and he has no obvious reason for giving erroneous information. In general, the particulars are supplied very willingly, the number of actual refusals being relatively small. The results, moreover, are not materially affected by these refusals, as in most cases it is possible to get approximate information by local enquiry. Small errors must naturally arise from mistakes in measurement or other incorrect statements, but with the large number of returns these inaccuracies should tend to balance one another.

The main difficulty in connection with the collection of these annual statistics lies in ensuring that all holdings are enumerated. The frequent changes in occupation, especially in recent years, the combination or division of farms, and the withdrawal of land for building or other purposes make the task of seeing that all the agricultural land in the country is accounted for a very serious one. A proportion of holdings do, in fact, escape enumeration, especially in the case of the smaller occupations under five acres, though the total area omitted from the returns in this way is a very small proportion of the agricultural area of the country.

An essential feature of the Agricultural Schedule is that the information asked for is such as the occupier is well able to supply; thus, the questions relate only to the acreage under the various crops on the farm, the number of live stock of different ages, the labour employed, or other facts which the occupier either knows or can easily find out. The questions, moreover, relate solely to the actual position on the farm at a given date, viz., June 4th each year.

Estimates of production.-Annual estimates of the production of the principal crops were first collected in 1884. There are two methods by which knowledge of the total production of any particular crop can be obtained. Application can be made to the grower or an estimate can be made by a competent observer. A variation of this is the sampling method by which the production of numerous sample plots is ascertained each year and the production of the country is calculated on the basis of the results obtained from these sample plots. At first sight it would seem

*The Agricultural Returns Act, 1925, made these returns compulsory but did not come into force until 1926. The annual returns were, however, compulsory under the Corn Production Act, 1917, from the year 1918 until the Act was repealed in 1921.

The information obtained in connection with the Census of Production has been obtained voluntarily on each occasion, as agriculture has not been prescribed as a trade under the Census of Production Act, 1906.

that the first method would give the best results, but this is not necessarily the case. Growers do not always weigh or measure their crops, and in any case do not usually do so till they come to be sold. Thus a farmer may keep wheat in the rick and not sell off the whole of his crop for a year or sometimes longer, some crops, such as barley, oats, roots or hay may be consumed on the farm, and so far as this is the case many farmers keep no accurate records of quantities. In short, though farmers may make some estimates for their own information, either of their total yield or of the part they expect to sell, it is not possible to rely upon them in general for exact or complete information. If every producer were willing and able to supply a fair estimate of the output of his crops, the average result would, no doubt, be more accurate than the estimates of a limited number of expert estimators. The difficulty of obtaining a statement from the producer has, however, made it necessary in practice to adopt the method of estimating as a means of obtaining annual information as to the production of crops. In England and Wales the Ministry has the assistance of some 320 Crop Reporters, for the most part land agents, valuers, and others with considerable local experience, who estimate the yield per acre of the principal crops, parish by parish. Each parish estimate is multiplied by the acreage of the crop in the parish as returned by occupiers on the Agricultural Schedule and in this way the total production in the parish and hence in the country is obtained. As there are roughly 13,000 parishes, the final estimate of production is the result of practically the same number of separate estimates based on local knowledge and weighted in proportion to the acreage. These final estimates are made after the crop is harvested, when actual results are known in many cases.

The Crop Reporter does not, of course, rely merely on his own observation in making these parish estimates, but supplements this by local enquiry from growers, and in the case of corn, from threshing machine proprietors. It is, however, the duty of the Crop Reporter to determine on the basis of the information thus obtained what can fairly be regarded as the average of the parish. It will be seen that, given reasonable skill on the part of the Reporters, the system should result in a high degree of statistical accuracy, and as regards the crops which are estimated annually this method has been adopted for the census of 1925.

The annual estimates made in this way cover wheat, barley, oats, mixed corn, beans, peas, roots, potatoes, hay, sugar beet and hops. There remain, however, many important items, such as milk and dairy produce, meat, wool, poultry and eggs, fruit and vegetables, which present much greater difficulty.

To supply these missing data is the main object of the Agricultural Census, and the method adopted so far as practicable has been to obtain from producers returns of output. The system varies with different products, but it has not been found possible in any case to obtain such complete information from producers

as would make it unnecessary to resort to estimates. In fact, it must be recognised that the difficulties in the way of obtaining precise or exact information in regard to the production of dairy produce, meat, fruit, etc., are exceptionally great, and though the broad general results obtained may be accepted with some confidence a margin of error must necessarily exist in an enquiry where so large a proportion of the units of production are small and isolated, and where only a proportion of the producers keep any records of their output.

A statement of the methods by which information has been obtained is given in the body of the Report in connection with the respective commodities.

In addition to all these particulars as to area of crops, number of live stock and production both of crops and live stock products, it is necessary, in order to obtain a general view of agriculture as an industry and its relation to other industries, to take account also of the value of the output, the capital and labour employed, the prices obtained for the products, and the number and character of the holdings into which the land of the country is divided. These various subjects are dealt with in the Report either by bringing together and summarising existing information or by means of new information obtained in connection with this enquiry.

CHAPTER II. THE AGRICULTURAL AREA.

1. The agricultural area in relation to the total area of the country. According to the latest official survey, the total area of England and Wales, exclusive of inland water and tidal land, is 37,136,000 acres. Of this, 25,755,000 acres were returned to the Ministry in 1925 as being under cultivation either as arable land or permanent pasture in holdings of over one acre. The occupiers of these holdings also returned a total area of 3,920,000 acres described as mountain, heath, moor or down land or other rough land used for grazing and forming parts of the holdings. In addition to this area actually returned by occupiers, there is an estimated area of 1,100,000 acres of similar land (mostly sheep runs) grazed in common, that is over which various persons have grazing rights. There is thus a total area of 30,780,000 acres accounted for in the Agricultural Returns.

In addition there are holdings of one acre or less, and allotments which, though not included in the Agricultural Returns, have a productive value and need to be taken into account in estimating the agricultural area. There are no definite particulars as to holdings of one acre or less, but they probably represent at least 50,000 acres while the acreage of allotments in 1925 was ascertained to be about 163,000 acres. * Some allowance needs also to be made for the holdings which should be included in the Returns but which escape enumeration. At a rough approximation it may be assumed that the inclusion of these missing holdings would increase the cultivated area by 100,000 acres.

In the aggregate then the total area which is used for agricultural or horticultural purposes in England and Wales comes to over 31 million acres, made up as follows:

* Prior to the year 1895, returns were obtained of holdings of one acre or less, and in 1895 holdings of exactly one acre accounted for 35,500 acres, but 20,000 of these holdings were allotments. The number of holdings of less than 1 acre, excluding allotments, in 1895, was 50,000. The area of allotments in 1925 is based on returns collected from Local Authorities, and details are given in the Annual Report for 1925 of Proceedings under the Allotments Acts.