into the mobilized army. However, no section of these countries has suffered actual disaster, and the resumption of normal activities will not be very difficult. Therefore, the emigration from these countries will be practically the same as before the war, if it is not less.

The countries which will seek to restrain emigration will include England, France and Germany. Under normal conditions these countries are not over-populated and, in addition, are well organized industrially. Before the war, they contributed little to the ranks of immigrants that came to the United States; after the war, they may be expected to contribute nothing at all. These countries will need every man of their population to bring their industrial systems back to their usual efficiency, and government regulation will probably be brought into play, should any noticeable movement for emigration begin.

Of the other belligerents, Austria-Hungary and Russia have a large population, and both are poorly organized industrially. These two conditions were largely responsible for the heavy emigration from these countries before the war.

While our chief concern, in this connection, is with Russia, it may be noted, in passing, that the government of the dual monarchy is even now attempting to improve the industrial situation by protecting the money standards of the country. This fact may serve as a portent of the future attitude, if war does not change materially the status of the empire.

As far as Russia is concerned, her industrial life has never been well organized, and the war showed that such organization as existed was almost exclusively in the hands of the Germans. Actual war operations have affected some of the most highly efficient manufacturing centers of Russia, viz., Poland, and has disorganized the economic life of the whole southern part of the country. But the war also made evident the part Germany played in the industrial life of Russia. When trade with Germany ceased and when, as a result of the state of war that existed between the two countries, German subjects were compelled to leave Russia, it suddenly became apparent that practically all industries were in the hands of the Germans. Even now, after eight months of the war, the indications are that the industries of Russia are still thoroughly disorganized.

Unemployment in Russia is acute. It has been calculated that the mere suspension of the distilling industry has left about a

hundred thousand men out of work in Petrograd alone. Part of this is, of course, accounted for by the prohibition of the sale of intoxicants.

The introduction of temperance is, undoubtedly, a splendid thing, but there are grave economic problems connected with it; one of these is the necessity of diverting the men employed in the suspended industry to other channels. It has never been the policy of the Russian government to encourage or aid the industrial development of the country. As an example of this may be cited the actions of the ministry of finance in 1901-02, when the government deliberately wrecked the metallurgical industries of southern Russia.

At

There are no indications that this policy has changed. present the cotton goods industry, whose product is used in immense quantities in Russia, is practically at a standstill, because the importation of raw materials has almost ceased. The removal of this obstacle lies in the hands of the government, as its chief cause is the lack of credits abroad and the lack of foreign specie in Russia, which renders the international import deals so unprofitable as to make them almost impossible. Several requests for foreign specie have come from the cotton goods manufacturers, the amount needed having been calculated to be approximately 70,000,000 roubles, but the government has refused practically every request. The last refusal was made quite recently.

In order even to resume the nation's industrial life, the Russian government would have to grant additional rights to those people who are capable of organizing the industries on a commercial basis, especially to the Jews. But the government has, as yet, given no indication of its intention to change its Jewish policy. Thus, it is more than likely that the Russian government itself will eliminate the Russian factors that might be working for the industrial development of Russia.

Germans and other Europeans will undoubtedly be too busy at home reorganizing their own industries to consider Russian problems. In this event, if even the Russian government should consent to having the Germans resume control of Russian industries, of which they had full sway before the war, the Germans themselves will scarcely be either able or willing to do so.

This, of course, opens an opportunity to American capital. Generally, however, Americans know so little about Russia that there will scarcely be an extensive movement of American capital

to Russia. It is more likely that Americans will prefer to remain at home and have Russian labor come over. This would mean that after the war Russian emigration to America will become more extensive than before.

The Russian government will be confronted after the war with unemployment of such wide prevalence as to make all other out-of-work problems we know of sink into insignificance. And it certainly will not be a paying proposition to keep this huge army of the unemployed within the empire, awaiting the slow industrial development characteristic of Russia.

It is probable that the government will throw no obstacle in the way of emigration, as it threw no obstacle in its way after the Russo-Japanese war and during the years that followed. The Russian population is enormous in comparison with the utterly inefficient industrial organization of the country. This state of affairs must produce, after the war, a large unemployed surplus of population that will either have to starve or emigrate. The latter course is more likely than the first.

A peculiar feature of this war is the fact that there is presumably no desertion in the Russian army, while during the Russo-Japanese war, there was a great deal of desertion. This is partly because the war is "nearer home" now than it was ten years ago, and therefore patriotism is stronger, but mostly because Russia is so bottled up that there is no path open for escaping abroad. Ten years ago, the deserters crossed the German border and went to America through Hamburg, Bremen and the other great German ports. Today, this is obviously impossible.

However, if the allied fleet succeeds in forcing the Dardanelles, things will probably begin to assume a new aspect. Unless Rumania is forced into the war, it will not be very difficult for Russian deserters to cross the Rumanian border and thence make their way to the Greek or Italian ports, from which the way to America would be open. Moreover, the opening of the Dardanelles will undoubtedly bring about direct commercial relations between American ports and Odessa. It would be very easy to divert to this service some of the English liners, as well as the boats of the Russian-American line.

The establishment of such a direct communication route through a very convenient, as far as railroad connections are

concerned, Russian port, will make it possible for many persons to leave the country, if they so desire.

These predictions, while partly theoretical and speculative, are thoroughly in keeping with what we know of Russia in the past and the information we get about her in the present.

All signs seem to indicate that in a very short time the Ellis Island officials will have to resume some of their work, and that the cessation of hostilities will bring on a new flood of immigration, the bulk of which will come from Russia.

Outlook. 113: 1023-4. August 30, 1916

Immigration of the Year

Two years have now passed since the beginning of the war. Immigration still is drastically curtailed.

While the net immigration in the year which closed July 1 was 125,941, as compared with 50,070 in 1915, the actual number of aliens who applied for admission, 366,748, was smaller than in the previous year by approximately 70,000. The reason for the greater actual increase in the alien population is due to the smaller number of those returning home. Immigration, of course, was largely from countries having access to the Atlantic Ocean. Nine racial groups-Dutch, Flemish, English, French, Irish, Finnish, Scandinavian, Scotch, and German-furnished nearly one-half of the immigrants, the remainder being scattered through thirty-one racial classifications. The chief contributions, aside from those of northwestern Europe, were Italian, Greek, Portuguese, Spanish, and Mexican. With the exception of the Italian, the totals of these nationalities were relatively high. Never before in a single year have so many Portuguese emigrated to the United States. There were about 13,000 of them, which was also the number of Spaniards. There were more than 22,000 Mexicans. than

The effect of the continued curtailment of immigration has been felt particularly in the labor market. Unskilled workers have been in such demand that they have been able to get employment at wages ranging from $2.25 to $2.50 for an eight-hour day, while available household servants have been asking and receiving a fifty per cent increase over the wages paid a year ago. ago

Some railway companies have been employing Southern Negroes and Mexicans in place of the Italian and Polish track hands who have left them to fight for their native country or to secure higher wages. Farm labor has gone up fifty per cent. The applications for help received by social relief organizations in New York City have fallen to less than half the total of a year ago. Most of the requests for relief have been due to illness, accidents, and for the care of alien widows.

American steamship agents are forecasting an exodus of at least 1,000,000 Hungarians, Poles, Austrians, Lithuanians, Bohemians, Germans, and other natives of Central Europe as soon as peace is declared. Their estimate is based on reports from subagents in different parts of the country, who say that many are making deposits and saving money for the purchase of tickets. These prospective emigrant aliens are anxious to see relatives and friends from whom they have heard little since the war broke out, and to look after property. Many of them-one-half, it is estimated-will remain to help rebuild their native countries. For this reason it is believed that, with the exception of the harassed Jews of the Pale and Poland, there will be a small emigration to America.

Scribner's Magazine. 58: 635-9. November, 1915

Immigration After the War. Frederic C. Howe

The results of the war are a subject of conjecture. It is claimed by some that, irrespective of the outcome, European nations will gird their loins to repair the ravages of the war. They will prohibit emigration in so far as they can.

By others it is claimed that millions will flee the Old World to avoid militaristic conditions; they will seek to escape the burdens of taxation; they will be driven by want and despair to find a freer home in a new land.

Both of these conjectures are probably in part correct: Immigration from some countries will cease, while immigration from other countries will be accelerated. New currents will be set in motion that will change the character of immigration, as well as its volume. New social necessities will change the functions of government, while the war itself will profoundly alter human psychology, which, in turn, will profoundly affect the new