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persons of the country's dominant race, for of the approximately 109,000 coming from that source in the eight years 1907–1914, only 6,000 were Turks, the predominant peoples being Armenians, Greeks, and Syrians. One hesitates, however, to predict what the future immigration of the real Turkish people may be.
Turning to the newly created countries of Poland, Czecho-Slovakia, and Jugoslavia, it is exceedingly difficult to estimate the part they may play in future immigration. The Polish people have long been an important factor in the influx from Europe, and from 1899, when immigration was first recorded by race as well as country of origin, up to the outbreak of the war, 1,402,695 Polish immigrants came to the United States. In fact, during that period they led all other peoples except the south Italians and Hebrews. Like most immigrants, the Poles came largely for economic reasons, but undoubtedly dissatisfaction with their political surroundings was also an incentive and it remains to be seen whether the realization of their long dream of a restored Poland will keep them at home in the future. The future of Polish immigration will depend very largely upon the economic progress of the reestablished nation. The same argument is applicable to the Slovaks, who, as subjects of Hungary, ranked sixth among immigrants in point of numbers furnished, but who are now united with the fellow Czecks in the war-born nation of CzechoSlovakia, and it applies as well to the Bohemians, Croatians, Slovenians, and Finns, all of them important immigrant races who have ceased to be subject peoples.
The Department does not look for any particular change in immigration from France. It has always been small; the total admissions from that country during the 100 years for which statistics are available are only 523,806. Italy, Austria-Hungary, and Russia each contributed a greater number in the two years just preceding the war, 1913 and 1914, than France did during the century.
England has long been an important emigrant furnishing country, and while her overseas dominions have attracted the majority of them in recent times, the United States has always received a generous share. On the contrary, this country has always been the haven of a majority of those leaving Ireland, but this movement is now little more than a shadow of what it was in earlier days.
So far as the neutral countries are concerned, it is expected that there will be a considerable influx of deferred immigration.
Considering Europe as a whole, there are some factors growing out of the war which may retard immigration and many which may promote it. Future immigration will depend primarily on the ability of European countries to initiate an era of peace and profitable employment for those who have survived the war and those who hitherto have been occupied in its pursuit.
Emigration to Europe.-Careful attention is due to the subject of alien emigration from the United States to Europe. Large numbers of former immigrants will return to their native countries either permanently or temporarily, but there will be nothing like a general exodus. The extent of the outward movement will, as in the past, very largely depend on economic conditions here and in Europe. Emigration is no new thing but has been one of the most striking characteristics of the newer movement of European peoples elsewhere discussed. Official records of the outward movement of aliens date only from 1908, and in the seven fairly normal years up to the outbreak of the war a total of 2,217,000 emigrant and nonemigrant aliens departed for Europe, compared with 6,200,000 immigrant and nonimmigrant aliens admitted from that source. In other words, 36 aliens left the country for every 100 admitted. That this condition was not peculiar to the particular period under consideration is shown by records of the Transatlantic Passenger Association, which disclose that during 22 years (1899–1910) as many as 37 steerage passengers were carried from the United States to Europe for every 100 brought from European to United States ports. Thus it is an established fact that emigration is by no means a recent phenomenon but is a fixed concomitant of the movement from Europe.
During the five war years the average annual emigration to all Europe was only 106,000, compared with an annual average of nearly 217,000 in the seven years prior to the war, and the formerly large annual exodus to Austria-Hungary, Russia, and other eastern European countries almost entirely ceased. If normal conditions had continued during the last five years it may be presumed that approximately 1,500,000 aliens would have returned to Europe, instead of the 530,000 who actually did return. It is natural to suppose that many whose home-going has thus been deferred will depart whenever steamship facilities are available. To what extent previously made plans may have been changed by reason of the war can not be estimated. However, owing to conditions in Europe many who had intended to return are likely to remain here permanently and send for their families. That many should desire to go to their native lands to visit relatives, look after property interests, or to bring over their families is only natural, and following the signing of the armistice there was every indication that an exodus of this nature would occur as soon as ocean transportation became available. Reports have reached the Department, however, which indicate that the disturbed conditions prevailing in Europe have led many to postpone if not abandon that purpose.
Chinese immigration and exclusion.—The records show that a single immigrant from China arrived in 1820, the first year of our immigration statistics, and that up to 1853 a total of only 88 had come. The
discovery of gold in California, which attracted people from nearly every country in the world, soon brought the Chinese also, and 1854 witnessed the beginning of what was to be the first Asiatic problem in the west, for 13,100 were then admitted from that country. The influx was practically unrestricted for 30 years, and during that period (1854–1883) more than 288,000, or an average of 9,600 a year arrived, but the immigration was checked as suddenly as it began, by the adoption of an exclusion act. In 1884 only 279 and in 1885 only 22 immigrants were admitted from China. During the 35 years following exclusion, that is, from 1884 to 1919, the total immigration from that country has been, in round numbers, 56,500, or an annual average of about 1,600, showing that exclusion measures have materially reduced the number. As a matter of fact, during the 12 years (1908-1919) that records of emigration as well as immigration have been kept, the number of aliens departing for China has slightly exceeded the number admitted from that source. It is also interesting to note in this connection that as the result of exclusion the number of Chinese in the United States has decreased quite rapidly in recent decades, as the following figures giving the number of natives of China in our population at various census periods will show: 1860....
63, 042 1880.
106, 701 1900.
56, 756 It may as a natural consequence be expected that the census of 1920 will show a further decrease, for, as already stated, emigration has exceeded immigration.
The story of how Chinese exclusion was brought about is an interesting one. The people of California had been opposed to the immigration almost from the beginning. Following the negotiation of the Burlingame treaty of 1868, agitation, though abated for a time, was again renewed. California enacted restrictive legislation, but it was declared unconstitutional by both the State courts and the Supreme Court of the United States. In 1876–77 a Congressional inquiry took place, after which appeals from the Pacific Coast States and their representatives became more vigorous in support of exclusion. In 1879 Congress passed a bill limiting the number of Chinese who could come to the United States in any one vessel to 15. This was the first Federal measure passed on the subject, but President Hayes vetoed it.
In 1880 a treaty was concluded with China which gave the United States the right to "regulate, limit, or suspend” the immigration of Chinese laborers, but not to "absolutely prohibit it." In 1882 Congress sought to take advantage of the provisions of the new treaty
and passed a bill suspending the immigration of Chinese laborers for 20 years; this was vetoed by President Arthur. Later in the same year, however, a bill providing for a 10 years' suspension but giving the right of reentry to Chinese lawfully in the United States, became a law. In 1884 another law was passed which strengthened the law of 1882 in some particulars.
In 1886 China indicated a desire to negotiate a treaty to prohibit the emigration of Chinese laborers to the United States, even including laborers who had been in this country and returned to China. Such a treaty was drawn and signed on March 12, 1888, its provisions being that Chinese laborers should be excluded for 20 years, and that those who returned to China would not be permitted to reenter unless they had left in the United States a wife, child, parent, or property to the value of $1,000. An effort was made in the act approved September 13, 1888, to carry out its provisions, but China's final refusal to ratify the compact nullified its vital parts. Then followed the act approved October 1, 1888, known as the Scott law, which closed the doors against even returning Chinese, so that practically complete exclusion was provided. In 1892 the famous Geary Act was passed which extended the exclusion act of 1882 for another 10 years, and made various amendments, including a provision providing for registration of all Chinese laborers within a stated period.
Following this legislation negotiations were resumed, and on December, 8, 1894, a treaty was proclaimed which provided for the exclusion of all Chinese laborers for 10 years, except returning laborers who had wives, children, parents, or property worth $1,000 in this country, thus nullifying the drastic provision of the Scott law, which refused departing Chinese of every class the right to return.
In 1902 a law was enacted which extended all Chinese-exclusion laws then existing "without modification, limitation, or condition,' and in 1904 such laws were made applicable to the insular territory. Chinese immigration from such territory to the mainland, or from one island group to another, was prohibited.
The only classes of Chinese aliens now admissible to the United States are teachers, students, travelers for curiosity or pleasure, merchants and their lawful wives and minor children, officials of the Chinese Government and their body and household servants, persons holding return certificates, persons passing in transit to some foreign country, and those whose physical condition necessities immediate hospital treatment. During the fairly typical year of 1918, when 1,576 Chinese immigrants were admitted, the principal occupations represented were as follows: Professional pursuits, 60; laborers, 127; merchants and dealers, 564; servants, 17; miscellaneous, 477, and of such as gave no occupation, including women and children, 331.
Chinese women have never come to the United States in great numbers, and in 1882, when the flow from China reached its highest point, only 116 females were among the 39,579 immigrants arriving. The proportion of women in recent years has been larger than formerly, but the average annual admissions are now only about 260. According to the census of 1910 the population of continental United States included only 1,788 females who were born in China, and a few of these were not of the Chinese race. Putting it in another way, there were in 1910, 3,074 males to every 100 females in our Chinese-born population. No other people showed such a wide disparity in this regard; the nearest competitors being the Montenegrins with 1,833 and the Bulgarians and Greeks with, respectively, 1,540 and 1,193 males to every 100 females, while among oriental peoples other than Chinese, the Japanese showed 870 and natives of India 427 males per 100 females. This lack of women is obviously a highly important factor in the situation because it insures a slow increase in the purely Chinese population.
JAPANESE IMMIGRATION. Japan appears in our immigration statistics for the first time in 1861, when one person was admitted from that country, but the movement did not become important until much later, as the following record of admissions by decades since 1860 will show: 1860-1869.
13, 998 1900-1909.
139, 712 1910-1919.
77, 125 The census records mention Japan for the first time in 1870, and the number of natives of that country in the United States at that and subsequent census periods were as follows: 1870.
2, 292 1900.
24, 788 1910.
67, 744 The above immigration figures include the movement to Hawaii as well as to the mainland since 1900, while the census figures relate only to continental United States. The number of native-born and foreignborn persons of the Japanese race in Hawaii in 1900 and 1910 follows:
Born in Hawaii..
19, 889 59, 786