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transitional arrangements, to all the benefit claimants then on the register.

The analysis showed that out of 7,703 males and 1,193 females in the sample whose benefit claims were authorised for payment at 4th April, 1927, 1,037 males or 13.8 per cent., and 62 females or 5 per cent., had paid less than 30 contributions since 5th April, 1925.

4. In considering these results of the enquiry in relation to the effect which the 30 contributions rule would be likely to have when fully in operation (i.e., by the end of the transitional period proposed in Clause 12 of the Unemployment Insurance Bill), it is necessary to bear in mind the following points:—

(1) Persons aged 65 and over will cease to be entitled to unemployment benefit on and after 2nd January, 1928, under the provisions of the Widows', Orphans' and Old Age Contributory Pensions Act, 1925; and a deduction from the gross number of disallowances shown by the sample enquiry must, therefore, be made in respect of persons aged 65 and over included therein.

The sample in fact included 82 persons (all males) aged 65 and over whose benefit claims had been authorised for payment, and who would have failed to satisfy the 30 contributions rule.

(2) The conditions in the coal mining industry during the greater part of the two-year period April, 1925, to March, 1927, were abnormal, and the prolonged stoppage of 1926 resulted in a substantial decrease in the number of contributions paid and an increase in the numbers who thereby failed to pay 30 contributions during the two-year period in question.

An allowance in respect of the effect of the coal mining stoppage of last year on the claimants from the coal mining industry alone can however be estimated by taking the percentage of failure to satisfy the rule in industries other than coal mining and applying it to the latter industry. This method assumes that but for the coal mining stoppage of 1926 the contribution experience of coal-mining claimants in April, 1925-April. 1927, would have been no worse on the average than that of claimants from all other industries taken together; and in this connection it is to be noted that the industries other than coal mining include a number of important industries in which the rate of unemployment during the past two years has been very high and this was aggravated by the conditions from May to November, 1926.

claims from coal mining workers who had not paid 30 contributions between April, 1925 and 1927. . If the percentage of such cases found in other industries had been found in coal mining also the number of failures would have been reduced by 194.

(3) It is not proposed that the provisions of Clause 5 (1) (a) of the Unemployment Insurance Bill, should commence to operate until April, 1929, and they will not be fully operative until April, 1930.

The percentage rate of unemployment among insured persons at 25th April, 1927, was 9.3 and on the assumption that the present tendency for employment to improve continues and is not interrupted by abnormal conditions, it may be anticipated that during the year April, 1929, to April, 1930, the rate of unemployment should not exceed 8 per cent.

This would necessarily result in a reduction in the number of claimants and in a lower number of cases in which there was failure to satisfy the 30 contributions rule.

It may be estimated that the latter reduction would be not less than 82, namely 10 per cent. of the numbers at April, 1927, after allowing for the two preceding items.

(4) During the year April, 1929, to April, 1930, the period for the payment of contributions to be taken into account in applying the rule will be the two-year period beginning at some point in the year April, 1927, to April, 1928, as compared with the two-year period April, 1925, to April, 1927, on which the figures obtained from the sample are based.

The average rate of unemployment in 1925 to 1926 (exclusive of coal mining from May to December, 1926) was about 12 per cent. It is thought reasonable to assume that the average rate in the two-year period beginning April, 1927, will not exceed 9 per cent, or a reduction of 25 per cent. as compared with the preceding two years; the numbers who would fail to satisfy the rule would therefore necessarily fall.

It is probable that on account of the consequent diminution in the number of cases of protracted unemployment the proportionate reduction of the numbers disqualified will be substantially larger than the 25 per cent. just mentioned, but for the purpose of the present estimate it is proposed to take 25 per cent. as the basis of calculation.

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As already stated the sample represented one per cent. of claimants on the register, and it may therefore be concluded on the basis of the foregoing estimates that when the new rule is in operation, i.e., by the end of the transitional period in April, 1930, approximately 56,000 persons who would have had benefit claims. authorised under existing conditions will fail to satisfy the 30 contributions rule.

(b) Abolition of discretionary power.

6. The foregoing paragraphs deal solely with the effect of the 30 contributions rule taken by itself. It must be remembered, however, that the abolition of the discretionary power to restrict extended benefit will give benefit to numbers who are now disallowed. In particular this applies to :-Single persons living with their parents; married women supported by their husbands; and short-time workers earning sufficient for maintenance. The question therefore arises how many of those who who would have been disallowed on these grounds will be able to

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satisfy the 30 contributions rule. It is reasonable to to conclude that all but a few of the disallowed short-time workers will be able to qualify since they pay a contribution for every week in which they do some work, and that probably the proportion of failures to satisfy the rule in the other cases mentioned would not be very high. The disallowances each week under these provisions are at present approximately as follows:

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900

2,100

Married and single persons with other means 1,200 of support. These figures would be reduced with an 8 per cent. rate of unemployment and the numbers disallowed under present conditions who might then be expected to satisfy the 30 contributions rule may be estimated as follows:

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In calculations based on the Live Register the short time. claimants referred to must of course be reduced and the net additional allowances of benefit due to the abolition of the discretionary power may be assessed at about 3,000 per week. It may, therefore, be computed that about 26,000 such cases on the average will be included in any weekly register figure.

Net effect of Bill.

7. On the basis of the previous estimates therefore the net effect of the Bill obtained by taking account on the one hand of the allowances due to the abolition of the discretionary power, and on the other, of the disallowances under the "30 contributions" rule is that, by the end of the transitional period in April, 1930, the number in receipt of benefit would be reduced by a figure of 30,000.

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