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HAT will be the effect of the Panama Canal upon the commercial and travel geography of the world? Will it change travel routes, stimulate commerce, and bring the people of great land-masses into closer relationship?

The Suez Canal, opened in 1869, shortened the travel distance between western Europe and eastern Asia by 3,400 miles, and in doing so opened new highways of travel and traffic, multiplied interchanges of merchandise, and developed closer relations between the Occident and the Orient. The Panama Canal will shorten travel routes between New York and Yokohama by 3,750 miles; between New York and Shanghai, about 2,000 miles; between New York and Australia, about 3,000 miles, and between New York and western South America by from 3,500 to 7,000 miles. It will also reduce the distance from Europe to western South America by 3,000 miles and to western North America by more than 5,000 miles.

Will it also divert travel and traffic from the present established routes, stimulate commerce, and develop closer relations between the people of the countries thus brought closer together?

International commerce doubled in the 30 years following the opening of the Suez Canal, and business and personal inter-relationship between the Occident and the Orient was increased in like proportion. Will similar results follow the like shortening of trade and travel routes by the Panama Canal?

WHAT DETERMINES STEAMSHIP ROUTES

Highways of travel on the ocean are influenced by surrounding conditions just as are those on land. The shortest distance between two given points is not always the best on the ocean any more than is the case on a continent or island. True, the ocean surface gives a level

"road-bed" for a direct line of travel, while a route over a land surface must make frequent detours to obtain even approximate levels for moving great quantities of merchandise.

But there are other important conditions which affect the ocean route. Plentiful freight supplies, present and prospective, interchangeability of the products of the countries forming the termini of the routes, "way stations" on such routes, plentiful coaling stations, and cheap coal of a quality suitable for steamship engines, and even favorable winds and ocean currents are among the factors contributing to the success of routes of travel upon the ocean.

Argentina, for example, has ample supplies of freight, but steamship lines do not develop rapidly between that country and the United States because most of the Argentine products are similar to our own, and there is no reason why she should send her wheat and corn and pork to this country, which has a surplus of those articles. Cuba, the world's greatest producer of cane sugar, sends little if any of it to Europe, because that part of the world produces. from beets all the sugar it requires. England, the world's greatest coal exporter, sends no coal to the United States, which has unlimited supplies of her own. So, shortening of distances between great sections will not develop steamship business unless the products of the two sections are of such character as to justify exchanges.

In some instances, however, steamship routes adjust themselves to locally adverse conditions. The steamer which carries wheat and corn and meat from Argentina to Europe may bring the silks and woolens and laces of Europe to the United States and then return to Argentina loaded with agricultural implements, iron and steel manufactures, and mineral

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oil from the factories and refineries of this country.

THE IMPORTANCE OF COALING STATIONS

Coaling stations and coal supplies are an important factor in determining routes of travel for steamers. The stations are numbered by hundreds and scattered over the entire travel world, yet the quality and prices of the material which they offer and the distances between ample and cheap supplies have much to do in determining steamship

routes.

British coal is the standard for steamships in Europe, the Mediterranean, and western Asia; India, Australia, and Japan are the chief sources of supply for eastern Asia and the western Pacific, and the United States chief purveyor to all of America and adjacent waters. Australian, Japanese, and American coals are somewhat cheaper than the English, and if the stations tributary to the Panama routes were so near to each other that the steamship could get supplies at frequent intervals, and thus devote most of its carrying space to merchandise rather than to large coal supplies, the routes via the Panama Canal would offer special attractions.

Coal is nearly one-half the cost of running a freight vessel. A large share of the freight now moved on the ocean is carried in "tramp" steamers of from 3,000 to 5,000 "net register" tons capacity, but an actual carrying power of about twice as many tons of dead weight.

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To charter a vessel of, say, 3,000 register tons, including the officers and crew, costs about $200 a day, while the coal required to run such a vessel at the very moderate speed of 10 miles an hour would cost about $150 per day. For senger steamers, making higher speed, the cost of coal is much greater, and would probably be quite as much as the hire of the vessel and all of her officers, crew, subsistence, and incidental expenses.

A freight vessel of the type above described, carrying about 5.000 tons dead weight and making about 10 miles per hour, would probably burn about 3.000 to 4,000 tons of coal on a trip from New

York to Yokohama or Shanghai and return, and if a saving of $1.50 per ton could be made by going via Panama and using the cheaper coal offered by that route, the economy in coal alone might turn the scale in favor of that route.

So it is apparent that coaling stations, coal supplies, and coal prices are factors of considerable importance in determining the choice of routes where distances are nearly equal.

THE SPHERE OF INFLUENCE OF THE

PANAMA CANAL

The sections of the world which may be considered as probably within the "sphere of influence" of the Panama Canal are the eastern and western coasts of America, the eastern coast of Asia, and the islands of the Pacific. All of western America will be nearer to Europe than at present, and all of western America and most of eastern Asia and Oceania will be nearer to the eastern coast of America than at present.

A study of the production and consumption of the various countries lying within the canal's sphere of influence shows that their various products are thoroughly interchangeable. The western coast of South America offers chiefly natural products. Chile has nitrates, copper, and comparatively small quantities of wheat and other grains. The nitrates are needed by both the United States and Europe; the copper comes to the United States to be smelted and refined and the grains are wanted by Europe. In exchange for these Chile takes manufactures, and both the United States and Europe have manufactures for sale in ever-increasing quantities.

The Philippines and the Dutch East Indies offer sugar, tobacco, hemp, and other tropical products, and both Europe and the United States want these and pay for them chiefly in manufactures, which form the bulk of the imports of these countries. Australia and New Zealand offer meats, wool, and hides and take manufactures in exchange; and both the United States and Europe want the wool and hides, and Europe wants also the wheat and meats, and she, as