the rainfall gauge, and at best they are far from being entirely satisfactory. The conclusions deduced from these scanty records are therefore by no means convincing. Nothing, in fact, can be more illusory than the theories sometimes derived from them, and nothing is more dangerous than to jump to wide generalizations from a few inadequate data. Some meteorologists think that the general variations in precipitation and other weather conditions occur in cycles, but the least period I have seen seriously suggested by them is about thirty-five years. Our records do not go far enough back to prove anything of value in this connection, and all efforts to establish run-off coefficients, curves, or diagrams, and formulas which might indicate the river stages that would result under given conditions of rainfall have thus far been practically useless; the lack of success in this direction arising mainly from our insufficient knowledge of all the conditions affecting the problem. Any positive or definite conclusions based on such uncertain data are necessarily very vulnerable.

10. It will be seen from the charts that the highest water at Nashville was that of 1882, and that high waters for the past ten years have been noticeably less in height and less in frequency than at the commencement of our records. At Chattanooga the highest water was in 1867. During the past few years, which have been rather "dry" years, the high waters in both the Cumberland and Tennessee have been less in height and duration than usual, which might reasonably be expected, owing to the smaller average quantities of precipitation; but it is particularly worthy of note that the low waters were not extreme, but as a rule were higher than usual, giving better depths for navigation. Although this may be in the nature of a surprise to some, it is plainly seen on the charts and is well established by reliable records. These facts can certainly be of no use in proving that our floods are higher and our low waters lower than before the forests were attacked. If they prove anything it should be the reverse. It may be stated broadly, and I think with positiveness, that the records of the Cumberland and Tennessee rivers do not indicate that the destruction of forests is having any noticeable effect, deleterious or otherwise, on stream flow or on precipitation.

11. The number of days and the number of times the river at Nashville has been above 35 feet or below 5 feet are shown in the accompanying table. In the last decade, 1899-1908, the stage has exceeded 35 feet but 8 times and for 78 days in all; for the previous decade it exceeded this height 9 times and for 123 days; and from 1879 to 1888, 11 times and 178 days. This plainly indicates a steady decrease of high-water stages in both duration and frequency since 1879. We also find that the river stage was less than 5 feet for 966 days in the years 1899-1904, an average of 161 days per year (in 1905-1908 low water was held up by Dam No. 1); in 1889-1898, 1,538 days, an average of 153.8 days per year; in 1879-1888, 1,418 days, an average of 141.8 days per year, and in 1874-1878, 576 days, an average of 115.2 days per year.

By examining these averages we see that since 1878 the number of days the river was below 5 feet, or the duration of moderately low stages, has been increasing; but, on the other hand, in the years 1889-1904, the river reached a stage of less than 1 foot 3 times and for an average duration of 20.8 days per year; in the preceding decade the river was below 1 foot 7 times, with an average of 32 days per year; and in 1879-1888, 9 times, with an average of 32.5 days per year. It thus appears that extreme low-water stages have not been growing either in duration or frequency during the last thirty years. Any statements that low-water conditions are becoming worse on the Cumberland in more rapid ratio than the decrease in the rate of precipitation are untrue, for they are growing better.

12. The reason for some of this variation seems clear when we examine the record of rainfall. In the last decade the yearly average was 46.089 inches; in the next preceding, 50.969 inches; in the next, 56.326 inches; while from 1871 to 1878 it was 49.47 inches. This rule of change is thus seen to be substantially the same as for the duration of high-water stages, and may account in part for the low-water variations.

13. In the case of the Tennessee we find from the gauge records that the average number of days the river was above 25 feet was 7.0 from 1899 to 1908; from 1889 to 1898 the yearly average was 9.1; from 1879 to 1888 it was 11.6; and for the four years before 1879 it was 9.3. These averages indicate that for thirty years the duration of stages over 25 feet has been steadily declining. Stages of over 35 feet occurred but four times during the ten years from 1899 to 1908, five times in 1889-1898, and 6 times in 1879-1888. This shows that the frequency of high water is also growing less. An inspection of the chart will

show that the heights are also less of late years, the highest flood having occurred in 1867 and the next highest in 1876. Moreover, we find that from 1899– 1908 the river was below 1 foot only twice (1903, 1904), with an average of 10.3 days per year; from 1889-1898 only three times (1894, 1895, 1897), with an average of 7.7 days per year; whereas in 1879-1888 it was less than 1 foot five times, with an average of 20.4 days per year. These records demonstrate that low waters have neither been so frequent nor so low of late years. It is therefore not true that the high waters in the Tennessee River are growing higher and the low waters lower, nor is the frequency or duration of these stages increasing as claimed.

14. The frequency and height of high waters in both of these rivers, as well as the duration of low waters, follow the rule of precipitation closely enough during the periods under observation to force the conclusion that here is the principal cause of the variations in these streams, and that the introduction of forestry as an important factor in either direction is forced and illogical. Whenever extreme precipitation occurs the river immediately records its effect, and during seasons of light precipitation the corresponding result is to be expected. Temperatures play an important part as affecting evaporation and absorption by the watershed, rainfall of equal intensity at different times of the year not having the same effect on the river stages. The distribution of the rainfall, both in point of time and locality, also affects the river heights; but the extent of this feature is of course not apparent from the data available, owing to the small number of rainfall stations where records have been kept.

15. It is worthy of note, too, that there has been no falling off in late years in the navigable capacity of the Cumberland River or the Tennessee due to silting up of channels or any other cause. On the contrary, conditions affecting navigation are distinctly better now than twenty to thirty years ago, even in the portions unregulated. This is largely due, in all probability, to the removal of snags and surface obstructions and the clearing away of overhanging trees. The period of time covered by these observations and the extent of the decrease in forested areas seen ample to show any decided or important change that might be taking place. The records and facts, however, appear to indicate clearly that there is no such intimate or important relation between river stages and forest cover as have been so enthusiastically maintained by the advocates of this theory, nor has the soil wash of the upper regions been raising the beds. No one, I think, desires to detract from the value of forestry as forestry, but it has often been said that the random statements made as to the usefulness of forestry in improving the depths in our navigable streams have unfortunately been much overdrawn, and that the extravagant claims now being urged in this direction have not helped the development of this useful industry. Frequent repetitions may in time create a popular belief in almost anything, but can never alter facts.

16. The stages which interrupt navigation the most are the extremes of high and low. At either of these forest cover appears to be of little assistance, or perhaps even a detriment rather than a help. Forest cover, of course, delays somewhat the run-off of rains, and thus assists materially in promoting absorption by the ground. But these effects are only limited and of small value; the sponge is soon saturated by heavy rains, and floods then occur without hindrance. In dry weather the forests hold back the small rains, permitting them to evaporate more readily, and thus rob the streams of whatever help they might otherwise have obtained. As was recently pointed out by Col. H. M. Chittenden, Corps of Engineers (Proc. Am. Soc. C. E., Sept., 1908), it is fortunate that this important industry is not dependent on its relationship to navigable rivers for its usefulness. In their efforts to obtain some constitutional basis for their extensive plans, it is feared that the friends of this valuable department of the Government have imperiled their projects by seeking to furnish reasons for them which are not supported by the facts.

Very respectfully,

WM. W. HARTS, Major, Corps of Engineers.

INCREASE OF APPROPRIATION TO AGRICULTURAL COLLEGES,

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES,

COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE,

Thursday, February 24, 1910.

The committee met at 11.45 a. m., Hon. Charles F. Scott in the chair.

There were present, in addition to the members of the committee, the following gentlemen interested in the pending bill: Dr. W. O. Thompson, president the Ohio State University; Dr. W. E. Stone, president Perdue University; Dr. J. L. Snyder, president Michigan Agricultural College; Dr. W. H. Jordan, director of the Geneva Experiment Station, New York; Dr. C. F. Curtis, dean of agriculture, Ames, Iowa; John Hamilton, farmers' institute specialist, United States Department of Agriculture.

The CHAIRMAN. The committee has met this morning pursuant to the order made yesterday to consider H. R. 15422.

[H. R. 15422, Sixty-first Congress, second session.]

A BILL For increase of appropriation to agricultural colleges for extension work.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That there shall be, and hereby is, annually appropriated, out of any money in the Treasury not otherwise appropriated, to be paid as hereinafter provided to each State and Territory, for the more complete endowment and mainte nance of agricultural colleges now established or which may hereafter be established in accordance with the act of Congress approved July second, eighteen hundred and sixty-two, and the acts of Congress approved August thirtieth, eighteen hundred and ninety, and March fourth, nineteen hundred and seven, the sum of ten thousand dollars, in addition to the sum named in the said acts for the fiscal year ending June thirtieth, nineteen hundred and ten, and a like amount annually thereafter, to be applied by these colleges in giving instruction and demonstrations in agriculture, home economics, and similar lines of activity to persons not resident in these colleges in the several communities, as may be provided by the States accepting the provisions of this act, and in conveying and imparting to such persons information with reference to the improvement of rural life.

SEC. 2. That at any time after two years from the date on which any State or Territory has accepted the appropriation made by this act and has actually organized a separate and distinct department of extension work in connection with and as a part of its agricultural college there shall be available from the National Treasury, in addition to the ten thousand dollars herein appropriated for the purposes named in this act, an amount of money for each State and Territory equal to the amount appropriated by the State or Territory to its agricultural colleges for the current year for extension work: Provided, That the additional appropriation to any State or Territory shall not exceed an amount equal to one cent per capita of the total population of that State or Territory as shown by the last United States census.

SEC. 3. That all printed matter issued from the agricultural colleges for the furtherance of extension work, as provided in this act, shall be transmitted in the mails of the United States and dependencies free of charge for postage, under such regulations as the Postmaster-General may from time to time prescribe.

SEC. 4. That the sums hereby appropriated to the States and Territories for extension work shall be annually paid in equal quarterly payments on the first day of Janu

ary, April, July, and October of each year by the Secretary of the Treasury, upon the warrant of the Secretary of Agriculture, out of the Treasury of the United States, to the treasurer or other officer duly appointed by the governing boards of said colleges to receive the same, and such officer shall be required to report to the Secretary of Agriculture, on or before the first day of September of each year, a detailed statement of the amount so received during the previous fiscal year and of its disbursement on schedules prescribed by the Secretary of Agriculture. The grants of money authorized by this act are made subject to the legislative assent of the several States and Territories to the purpose of said grants: Provided, That payment of such installments of the appropriation herein made as shall become due to any State or Territory before the adjournment of the regular session of the legislature meeting next after the passage of this act shall be made upon assent of the governor thereof, duly certified to the Secretary of the Treasury.

SEC. 5. That no money shall be paid out under this act to any State of Territory for the support and maintenance of a college where a distinction of race or color is made in the admission of students, but the establishment and manitenance of such college separately for white and colored students shall be held to be a compliance with the provisions of this act if the funds received in such State or Territory be equitably divided as hereinafter set forth: Provided, That in any State in which there has been one college established in pursuance of the act of July second, eighteen hundred and sixty-two, and also in which an educational institution of like character has been established, or may be hereafter established, and is now aided by such State from its own revenue, for the education of colored students in agriculture and the mechanic arts, however named or styled, or whether or not it has received money heretofore under the act to which this act is an amendment, the legislature of such State may propose and report to the Secretary of Agriculture a just and equitable division of the fund to be received under this act, between one college for white students and one institution for colored students, established as aforesaid, which shall be divided into two parts and paid accordingly, and thereupon such institution for colored students shall be entitled to the benefits of this act and subject to its provisions, as much as it would have been if it had been included under the act of eighteen hundred and sixty-two, and the fulfillment of the foregoing provisions shall be taken as a compliance with the provisions with reference to separate colleges for white and colored students.

SEC. 6. That if any portion of the moneys received by the designated officer of any State or Territory for the further and more complete endowment, support, and maintenance of agricultural colleges as provided in this act shall by any action or contingency be diminished or lost or be misapplied, it shall be replaced by said State or Territory to which it belongs, and until so replaced no subsequent appropriation shall be apportioned or paid to such State or Territory, and no portion of said moneys exceeding five per centum of each annual appropriation shall be applied, directly or indirectly, under any pretense whatever, to the purchase, erection, preservation, or repair of any building or buildings, or to the purchase or rental of land. It shall be the duty of each of said colleges annually, on or before the first day of January, to make to the governor of the State or Territory in which it is located a full and detailed report of its operations in the direction of extension work as defined in this act, including a detailed statement of receipts and expenditures from all sources for this purpose, a copy of which report shall be sent by each of said colleges to the Secretary of Agriculture and to the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States.

SEC. 7. That on or before the first day of July in each year, after the passage of this act, the Secretary of Agriculture shall ascertain and certify to the Secretary of the Treasury as to each State and Territory whether it is entitled to receive its share of the annual appropriation for colleges or of institutions for colored students under this act, and the amount which thereupon each is entitled, respectively, to receive. If the Secretary of Agriculture shall withhold a certificate from any State or Territory of its appropriation, the facts and reasons therefor shall be reported to the President, and the amount involved shall be kept separate in the Treasury until the close of the next Congress, in order that the State or Territory may, if it should so desire, appeal to Congress from the determination of the Secretary of Agriculture. If the next Congress shall not direct such sum to be paid, it shall be covered into the Treasury. And the Secretary of Agriculture is hereby charged with the proper administration

of this law.

SEC. 8. That the Secretary of Agriculture shall make annual report to Congress of the receipts and expenditures and work of the institutions in all of the States and Territories receiving the benefits of this act, and also whether the appropriation of any State or Territory has been withheld, and, if so, the reason therefor.

SEC. 9. That Congress may at any time annul, suspend, or repeal any or all of the provisons of this act.

The consideration of this bill is taken up at this time at the request of the executive committee of the National Association of State Agricultural Colleges, and that committee is present this morning. The chairman of it, I believe, is Doctor Thompson, of Ohio, and we shall be glad to have him make such statement as he desires or to present any members of the committee whom he would prefer to have first heard.

Mr. THOMPSON. Owing to the fact that President Snyder desires to leave early I request that he may be first heard.

I introduce President J. L. Snyder, of the Agricultural College of the State of Michigan.

STATEMENT OF DR. J. L. SNYDER, PRESIDENT OF THE MICHIGAN AGRICULTURAL COLLEGE.

Doctor SNYDER. With no attempt at being strictly accurate, it may be stated that for a century or more the population of this country has doubled in every twenty-five years to thirty years. We do not know what influences may affect this ratio of increase in the future, but in the past the rate of increase has been quite uniform, and we can see no reason at present why this ratio may not be kept up for many years. If we are to increase as in the past, our population will not be far from two hundred million by the middle of this century-forty years hence.

The increase in the production of the staple articles of food has kept pace with the increase in population. The production of wheat, corn, and oats has doubled and, in some instances, a little more, each twenty-five years. The fact worthy of note is that the yield per acre has not doubled; it has not even held its own. The production of these staple crops doubled because the area of cultivated land was double. The increase in population, the increase in production, and the increase in the area of cultivated land have moved along at practically the same rate. Population will increase in the future; production must increase at the same rate, if we maintain present standards of living. The area of cultivated land can not increase, because we do not have it. Population and production are unfixed quantities, but land is limited and we can not extend our boundaries. We have been able to increase production rapidly in the past, because we have brought under the plow ten million acres annually for the last fifty years.

But our public domain is practically exhausted. We do not have enough left fit for cultivation to take care of the increase in population for more than three or four years, at best. The arid land which may be redeemed by irrigation will not take care of the increase in population for more than two years.

În my opinion, this country is now facing the greatest economic problem with which it has ever had to contend, and it is this: How shall we stimulate the production of the common articles of food so that they may keep pace with the increase in population?

How the people shall be fed has never been a serious problem with us before; and if we are willing to lower our standards of living for a large portion of our people it might not yet be considered serious. But to maintain present standards for the next quarter or half a cen