INTRODUCTION

The interrelated problems of the current world population growth ratehunger, environmental degradation, and depletion of earth resources-are properly matters of increased public concern. This House Republican Task Force on Earth Resources and Population report is directed toward providing improved understanding and more effective policies for dealing with these critical problems. This report is the result of extensive hearings and study conducted over the past year.

The initial concern of the Task Force was the Federal Government's role in providing family planning services to the estimated 5.3 million women who wanted these services as part of maternal and child health care services, but who could not afford these services or did not know where to find them. As a result of this concern, the Task Force issued a report on "Federal Government Family Planning Programs Domestic and International" on December 22, 1969.

As important as it is to achieve President Nixon's goal of providing family planning services to these estimated 5.3 million women, the Task Force recognizes population growth problems as being of far greater magnitude and complexity than could ever be solved through total availability of family planning services. Because our domestic population is expected to leap from its present 204 million people to over 300 million by the end of this century while the world population is expected to double from 3.5 billion to 7 billion in this same time period, we face a formidable problem in providing the goods and services necessary for sustenance, while still protecting our environment.

In the first volume of The Story of Civilization, Will Durant discusses certain conditions which, if they disappear, may destroy a civilization. He claims that "the failure of natural resources, either of fuels or of raw materials," is one of the ways in which a civilization may die.

One of the basic facts we must realize about our earth is that it is composed of finite resources-resources that provide the means by which we are able to support our civilization and our very lives. Through hard work and ingenuity, America has become the most affluent nation in the world. Yet, much of our affluence and many of our conveniences are now being taken for granted. For example: we turn on a switch and expect light; we set our thermostats and expect the proper heat to warm our homes; we turn a dial and expect the necessary means to cook our food. Every one of these conveniences depends upon the use of resources from the storehouse of our earth. These are only some of the more obvious examples of our dependence upon earth and mineral resources.

Americans' reliance on these earth resources is unquestionable. But will we have them in sufficient supply to accommodate ourselves and our offspring if our population continues to increase at the present rate and our present rate of consumption continues? With only six percent of the world's population, the United States consumes almost one-third of the world's minerals. In fact, we have consumed more of these resources in the past 10 years than was consumed in all previous history.1

SECTION I-EARTH RESOURCES

Energy

Among the most important of the earth's resources is the supply of energy producing materials. The production of electricity, the power to drive our cars, and the ability to heat our homes all result from the energy produced from fuel minerals. Our society's demand for electric power increased nine percent each year over the past two years. This would mean a doubling of our present demand within the short span of less than nine years. At this same level of expansion, the demands would increase by 800 percent before the end of this century. The problem is becoming more intense because of the difficulty of extracting the necessary fuel minerals for running the generators of our nation's power plants.

Power Blackouts-The Effect on Environmental Considerations

Millions of Americans face the real possibility of power blackouts this summer. Perhaps as many will face a shortage in energy for heating demands this winter. Homes and office buildings will be asked to turn off air conditioners on the hottest days this summer. In some areas appliances may have to go unused for periods of time because of the lack of power to run them.

1 Report 91-390, Senate Committee on Interior and Insular Affairs. (Sept. 1969).

The Task Force is concerned that as a result of these inconveniences, many citizens will close their eyes to necessary environmental considerations and demand more power at any cost to the environment. For probably the first time Americans will be faced with decisions that affect the environment and their personal comforts and conveniences. We will confront a situation where power demands will require the more efficient and expendient methods of mineral fuel extraction, while we will likewise face the equally important requirements of providing adequate environmental safeguards.

Current Domestic Resource Capabilities

The time span necessary to exhaust the majority of fossil fuels at our present rate of consumption is only a matter of centuries. The time required for the formation of new fossil fuels by geological processes is about 600 million years. If the population continues to grow at the present rate, with a corresponding increase in energy demand, we may be faced with a serious shortage of fossil fuels. For example, coal has been mined for about 800 years, but one-half of the coal produced during that period has been mined during the last 31 years. Half of the world's production of petroleum has occurred since 1956. Given this situation, we must either decrease our energy demand, or find a new major source of energy production, if we are to avoid the complete exhaustion of our energy fuels. Nuclear energy may eventually dominate electric power generation and help to obviate this problem, but at present the process is very costly.

Natural gas

A study done for the Federal Power Commission, Bureau of Natural Gas, states that, "On the basis of current trends, only a few years remain before demand will outrun supply." The United States gas industry and its customers will be increasingly dependent upon supplementary sources in the years beyond 1973. These supplementary sources could include: synthetic gas from coal, liquefied natural gas imported by ocean tanker, and imports from Canada.

Coal

Coal reserves are estimated at anywhere from 800 billion to more than one trillion tons, and the technology is available to produce it. We have a thousandyear supply of coal in sight. However, the air pollution control program, which is becoming nationwide in scope, may preclude the burning of coal in the amount required.

Air pollution control officials are concerned with two pollutants from the burning of coal: sulfur oxides and particulate matter. The emission of particulates can be controlled by the installation of electrostatic precipitators, and dust collectors. However, about two-thirds of the coal produced east of the Mississippi River cannot meet the present sulfur oxide emission standards, and there is no prospect that commercial sulfur removal techniques for coal will generally be available over the next few years. Low sulfur coal that would meet these standards is in extremely short supply.

Petroleum

Petroleum fuels are the nation's and the world's leading source of industrial energy. However, much of our supply comes from foreign sources. The gap between domestic supply and demand is widening rapidly, and it appears unlikely that we will be able to restore our position of self-sufficiency in petroleum energy.

The long range development of oil shales may be a way to supplement our crude oil supply. Approximately 78 percent of the world's known oil shale reserves are located in the United States with the bulk of these reserves contained in the Green River formation of Colorado. Utah, and Wyoming. The oil contained in this formation, with a content of at least 15 gallons per ton, may total as much as 1.8 trillion barrels. This is potential equivalent of enough oil to meet U.S. requirements for hundreds of years.

The promotion of the research on shale oil production has not been adequate. The present lack of interest is probably due to both economic and technological factors. Oil shales have their hydrocarbon content in a solid form, and they include objectionable nitrogen and other impurities that create problems in refining. Technology is apparently not far enough advanced to make it economically competitive with existing sources of petroleum.

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Nuclear Power

Nuclear energy is the only remaining energy source of sufficient magnitude and practicability of exploitation to meet the world's future energy needs. Of the possible sources of nuclear energy, that from the fusion reaction has not yet been harnessed and probably won't be in this century. Power from the fission reaction of uranium-235 is an accomplished fact, with more than 100 reactors presently operating or under construction. Although there is an enormous amount of energy released from the fissioning of uranium-235, it is an expensive and rare chemical element, and represents only 141 of natural uranium. There is an optimistic prediction for nuclear energy, however, if we consider the fact that it is possible to convert both non-fissionable uranium-238, comprising almost all of natural thorium, into fissionable plutonium isotopes. In order to achieve this process, it will be necessary for us to develop "breeder" reactors, which actually generate more usable fuel than they consume.

The fuel for a "breeder" reactor (uranium-238 and thorium-232) is cheaper and more abundant than uranium-235. In fact, the intrinisic cost of fuel for a "breeder" reactor is only ooth the cost of the fuel in the current burner reactors. However, uranium-235 is valuable as an initial fuel for breeder reactors, and is being consumed by our present generation of burner reactors. Consequently, it is essential that we replace the present burner reactors with "breeder" reactors, to conserve uranium-235 and assure the nation of an inexhaustible supply of nuclear fuel. A report by the National Academy of Sciences claims that if this is not done, the inexpensive sources of uranium-235 would probably be exhausted within a fraction of a century.

Nonfuel minerals

The availability of earth and mineral resources is indispensable to the growth and sustenace of our culture. The Bureau of Mines has said that our mineral production is slightly less than 3 percent of our gross national product. However, it has direct impact on 40 percent of the GNP, and an indirect impact on 75 percent of the GNP. Without an adequate supply of these mineral resources, we would find ourselves confronted with insuperable problems that could very well spell the end of the good life.

Current Supplies Fall Short of Future Demands

Our mineral consumption rate has substantially outgained our population growth rate for years. In the past century, our population grew more than 400 percent, but our mineral consumption increased more than 4000 percent.

Some predictions suggest that by 1980 consumption of mineral resources by the United States will rise 50 percent. Bureau of Mines projections for the period 1965-2000 show that iron consumption will increase over 200 percent in the United States and more than 250 percent worldwide. Zinc consumption will increase nearly 375 percent both in the United States and worldwide. Copper will increase more than 200 percent in the United States and nearly 375 percent worldwide. Despite the fact that our consumption rate will increase, we can see that the consumption rate of the world will increase even faster due to the economic and technological development of foreign countries. It is difficult to determine how and if we can meet these increased demands. Currently established reserve fall short of projected requirements, and it is difficult to estimate the possibility of new discoveries.

Today, per capita demand for minerals in the United States amounts to about $150 per person per year. By the year 2000 the Bureau of Mines believes that our per capita mineral demand will be approximately $420. The United States is producing annually about $25 billion worth of primary minerals and consuming approximately $32 billion worth. By the end of this century, when our population is expected to be 300 million, production is expected to increase to about $66 billion annually, and consumption to approximately $135 billion. In other words, the present annual deficit of $7 billion will increase to $69 billion by the year 2000.

Our current production deficit is about 22 percent of consumption requirements. It was only 9 percent in 1950, and if present trends continue it will rise to more than 50 percent in the next 50 years.

United States Is Dependent on Foreign Sources

Minerals are scattered across the earth in unpredictable patterns, and no single nation can depend entirely on its own resources. All nations are interdependent upon one another for an adequate supply of resources, but the United States is in a particularly dependent position. The United States is an enormous consumer of minerals and fuels. For example, the world-wide per capita consumption of iron and copper is about one-sixth that of the United States, and for lead it is oneeighth. Despite the fact that we are the world's largest producer of copper, we are also the world's largest importer of this mineral. Fifty years ago, we were the world's largest exporter of copper. A study by Resources for the Future, Inc., has concluded that over the next three decades the United States will be largely dependent on imports for such vital metals as manganese, chromium, nickel, and tungsten. It also suggests that the total world demand will begin to outstrip the known mining potential of copper, lead, and zinc in all parts of the globe. Except for coal and molybdenum, the United States is partially or wholly dependent on imports for even its normal needs of most of the metals and minerals that are the foundation of our economy. Today, imports supply over 75 percent of our needs for 20 different raw materials.

Labor Dwindles While Research and Development Lag

Exploration for minerals is a complex business, and most of the easy discoveries have been made. It is now a very difficult and costly procedure that entails a great deal of chance. We must also keep in mind that as much as 8 to 10 years may elapse between the time the decision is made to open a new mine and the time the development work is completed and commercial production gets under way.

It is an undeniable fact that we must use available ore to the greatest possible advantage. We are going to be required to turn to the lower grade ore deposits and deposits at very great depths to satisfy our mineral requirements. Such endeavors will require research, both basic and applied. However, a study conducted by the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the National Research Council says, "Despite the key role of mineral products, mineral technology in the United States is in a declining state, and serious trouble lies ahead for the country unless corrective actions are taken promptly."

There is a great need in the United States for increased mineral exploration and development. Yet, fewer students have applied for admission to the mineral schools, and we have seen the decline of mining schools in the United States from 26 to 17 in five years. There is also a startling lack of students throughout the United States studying such mineral engineering subjects as geological engineering, geophysical engineering, metallurgical engineering, mining engineering and petroleum engineering. Last year American universities graduated a total of only 110 mining engineers, and many of these were foreign students who returned to their own countries. In 1967 there were 19 graduate programs in mining with a median participation of eight graduate students, and half of these were foreign nationals. The public attitude toward mining has also contributed to the manpower problem. It has become more difficult to recruit labor to man mines, particularly the underground mines in remote areas. Furthermore, it is estimated that the average coal miner is over 50 years of age, and the 250,000 of them will retire in the next 2 years.

Recycling of solid waste

An undetermined amount of resources are being dumped on America's landscape and into our air and water in increasing volume each year in the form of solid wastes. It is estimated that every year each person in the United States discards 200 pounds of paper, 135 bottles and jars, and 250 metal cans plus myriads of other packaging materials. In addition to this there are about seven million automobiles junked each year, 110 million tons of industrial waste, 550 million tons of agriculture residues, 1.5 billion tons of animal manures, and one billion tons of mineral wastes.

In the past, solid waste has been viewed as material to be disposed. Even as recently as 1965, the Federal government's effort to assist with solid waste problems was titled the Solid Waste Disposal Act of 1965. Recently, however, there has been an increasing awareness that solid waste could be processed through recycling and reuse technology, to render beneficial resources-fertilizers, minerals, food, and new combinations of industrial materials as substitutes for present depleting resources.

In order to move forward with new initiatives in solving the problems of solid wastes, President Nixon ordered a re-direction of research that would make products more easily disposable, and develop the technology needed to reuse and recycle a far greater proportion of waste materials. The President's leadership in this activity led to the overwhelming support in the House of Representatives of the Resource Recovery Act of 1970 which will: expand and intensify the development of new techniques for solid waste disposal; stimulate the construction by the several States and municipalities of pilot projects utilizing new and improved waste disposal technologies; and provide for conducting studies to determine economical means of and appropriate incentives for recovering useful materials and energy from solid wastes and a way to reduce the amounts of such waste which should be disposed.

The oceans-Untapped resources

Any consideration of our earth resources requires that attention be given to developments in the field of oceanography. Too little is known about marine resources and their possible benefits available to mankind. The Task Force believes oceans may hold an important key to the future. The raw material value of commercial products extracted from the ocean by U.S. firms exceeds $2 billion a year and such production is growing at the rate of 12 percent annually. However, this is only a small portion of the fishing, mineral and water supply potential. Development of fish protein concentrate offers potential for providing domestic and world protein, but questions remain concerning toxicity of fish. Research on lean fish utilization has progressed to pilot plant stage. Fatty fish, however, are in greater abundance. Research is progressing to develop technology for their commercial utilization. The sea and fresh water offer greater potential for economic fish production. There is particular promise for aquaculture for species where market demand is high, such as for shrimp, catfish, salmon, lobsters and oysters. The major deterrent here lies in the lack of proper water quality environments for such development. This is another example of the need to approach our resource problems in a total systems concept of development and management.

Food and nutrition-A world crisis

There is general agreement that our ability to produce enough food for the growing American population is not in danger, yet too many Americans lack proper nutrition. The total supply for the world population is already insufficient. At the present rate of world population growth, the per person ration is likely to continue to decline. The present methods of increasing productivity per acre with the use of heavy fertilization and pesticides cause pollution of the soil and the water table as well as tributaries, rivers, lakes and our oceans. This aspect of agriculture will have to be changed or controlled if we are to avoid further pollution of our water supply and marine life.

Tomorrow, in just one day, the amount of food will be about the same as today, but there will be 200,000 more mouths to feed. At least one-half the people in the world today are hungry. Their food for the day is likely to consist of a single potato or a bowl of rice. The average South American had 7 percent less to eat in 1966 than he did in 1960. Eighty percent of pre-school children in rural India alone suffer from malnutrition dwarfism. Approximately 61 million metric tons of plant nutrients (fertilizers) would be required, in addition to the roughly 6 million metric tons now being applied in the developing nations, if their food production is to be increased 100 percent above present levels. The use of pesticides or some substitute will have to increase six-fold if the insects and diseases are to be controlled in developing countries.

For human consumption, protein concentrates from soybean and corn are very promising and are being developed into marketable products. Development of single cell protein from petroleum is beginning to show progress. More knowledge is needed on the subject of poisonous fish and marine biochemistry before placing too much confidence in fish protein concentrate. Sub-sea farming as mentioned previously is economically promising.

The role of satellites

Earth Resource Satellites (ERS) can make a valuable contribution by enabling us to understand the earth as a total system. An ERS equipped with multispectral sensors photograph every area within its scope every 90 minutes. This constant