hardly fair to contrast the greater amount of flying which is being done by the French to-day with that which is being done by this country, unless one is prepared to support the allocation by the British Government of sums similar to those which are being allocated by the French Government; I am sure that no degree of public support would be given to such a proposal. This country is endeavouring to pay its way and must, if it is to achieve that, postpone expenditure on many things in themselves highly desirable. This, which is a simple truism, receives additional emphasis in respect of civil aviation when we remember, first, that a comparison with the French effort is a comparison of two things fundamentally different in their purpose, and, secondly, that it is by no means certain that subsidization on a wide scale would achieve the establishment of a prosperous industry.

I was interested to observe that a French writer, in a recent article written in defence of the results of the Paris Aero Show against some of the criticisms which had been passed upon it, especially upon its comparative failure as evidence of new design, made some striking admissions of the errors into which the earlier policy of subsidization had led the French Government. For example, he said, "it has been found that in 1920 several companies had made no efforts to attract business and more frequently than not carried out flights with empty machines," whilst of the whole of what he describes as "this delicate problem," that is to say, of subsidies, he says, it opens up a vast field for discussion, controversy, and incidentally intrigue." The French have shown themselves conscious of some of the pitfalls inherent in any policy of subsidization and have made considerable alterations in the conditions since their subsidies were first instituted; but even of the present regulations this French writer has some significant things to say. For example, of the petrol subsidy he says, "the new subsidy stifles initiative in the firms concerned since they are free from all anxiety in regard to the price of petrol." · And he further states that "the present regulations have been drawn up more with an eye to existing machines than to future construction. I think, therefore, that the Government would require much greater justification than a mere comparison between figures of flight for France and this country before they engaged in a similar policy. There would have to be not merely much greater agreement as to the degree to which subsidies can assist the permanent health of the industry, but also a substantial public desire for the expenditure of large sums in this direction.

THE CIVIL AVIATION ADVISORY BOARD.

I am far, however, from wishing to conclude on any such note, necessary as it is to strike it. I stated a little while back that I would indicate one manner in which the present cost and practicability generally of an Imperial air mail service would receive examination. I have the authority of the Secretary of State for Air for giving that indication to-day. It has been decided that on the difficult problems in connection with the development of civil aviation as a whole there is need for a body acting in close relations with the Air Ministry and at the same time representative of the great interests concerned, to advise generally upon such development or to report specifically upon any question which may be referred to it. The Advisory Committee on Lord Gorell.

Civil Aviation presided over by Lord Weir gave very distinguished help in the past, and it has now been thought well to perpetuate the basic idea underlying the formation of that Committee. There will, therefore, be set up a body which will be known as the Civil Aviation Advisory Board, the Chairman of which will be the Under-Secretary of State for Air and the membership of which will comprise the Controller-General of Civil Aviation, the Director-General of Supply and Research, together with, it is hoped, representatives of the General Post Office, the Associated Chambers of Commerce, Lloyds, the Royal Aeronautical Society, the Air League of the British Empire, the Royal Aero Club, and the Society of British Aircraft Constructors; in addition, the most convenient way of securing representation of the Dominions and Crown Colonies is being considered, and they will in any event be consulted whenever the interests of any are concerned. I am further authorised to say that the Secretary of State has decided to refer to this Advisory Board, as the first subject upon which he desires its recommendations, the question of the cost and practicability of an Imperial air mail service.

There will be many other questions upon which it is believed that the recommendations of such a Board, which it is intended shall meet with some regularity, will be of the utmost value to the Air Ministry. Possibly one direction in which it can give general assistance will be that to which I have referred more than once in this paper and upon which I lay the greatest emphasis of all. I cannot express it better than by quoting the words used by Mr. Holt Thomas in a letter published in "The Times" on the 25th November last, immediately after his experience of the first International Congress on the navigation of the air in Paris. He wrote: "Convinced as I have been for the last fifteen years of the importance of aviation to this country, I return from France with a still stronger conviction that this country must, by hook or by crook, be led to appreciate the enormous importance of aviation, and especially, at this time, of civil aviation, to the British Empire." With that conviction I express myself in entire agreement; but the creation of this conviction, I must repeat, is a task in which a Government Ministry can to some extent assist but which it cannot successfully itself undertake. That must be done by the recognition of the possibilities of the air by the business community. I am certain that passenger traffic, important as it is, is not so essential to the health of civil aviation as an industry as the transport of goods, and if we are to take advantage of the great exploits performed by British airmen in the war and of our needs and opportunities as an island Empire, we do require first and foremost the establishment in the public mind of the realization of aerial commercial possibilities. Whether we look forward with M. Louis Bréguet to a day when an aeroplane will be able to travel at a rate of 1,200 kilometres an hour-faster, that is, than the movement of the earth or whether we confine ourselves to the actual, the proved possibilities of aerial transport, in either case, we need above all else as a nation a changed attitude of mind, a general recognition that science has now brought to the race of man two more servants, the airship and the aeroplane-in which word I also include seaplaneand that, in the words which Lord Montagu of Beaulieu has put with graphic poetry into the mouth of the latter :

Thus doth He send me for Warfare, for Peace, for the ultimate good

Of the nations willing to woo me and fathom my every mood, That the end may be won by courage, as it was since the world began,

To give the New Dominion of the wayward air to man."

The CHAIRMAN: The second paper on the Agenda is entitled, "Aerial Transport To-day and To-morrow," and is to be read by Lt. Col. W. A. BRISTOW, M.I.M.E., M.I.A.E., F.R.Ae.S.

AERIAL TRANSPORT TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW.

Lt. Col. W. A. BRISTOW, M.I.M.E., M.I.A.E., F.R.Ae.S.: Captain Guest, my Lords and Gentlemen; It is a matter of some little difficulty to write in a practical manner of the future of aerial transport owing to the lack of sufficient data upon which arguments can be based or from which conclusions may safely be drawn. This difficulty exists. in every department of the subject, both on the technical and commercial sides and in consequence our ideas of the future must to a very large extent be founded on a mixed basis of theory, practice and imagination.

It is impossible, for example, to give schedules of operating costs that could be taken as a guide to the future, as no company in the world has yet run with a complete fleet of aeroplanes and engines such as are considered to-day to be satisfactory for the purpose, neither can we consider that many other important factors are in a satisfactory condition.

It is probably a fair statement that commercial aviation has up to the present been little more than full scale experiment with apparatus largely of a makeshift and temporary character. In spite of these limitations, however, the results have been of an extremely interesting and valuable character, and this audience will doubtless agree that the very greatest credit is due to those who have in face of serious difficulties carried ever increasing loads with factors of regularity and safety of a high order.

CHAPTER I.

Before attempting to deal with the subject in detail it may be as well to examine briefly some of the main outstanding features of the present situation.

In the first place we have to recognise that at present it is not possible to carry on the business without a subsidy in some form or other, and therefore the character, allocation, and working of the subsidy system will have a most important effect on development.

As you are all aware, there has been considerable discussion as to the merits and demerits of the present system, although after hearing much of the criticisms you might be excused for wondering whether there were any merits in it at all.

In the first place it has been said that it is a mistake to confine the operations of subsidised services to the London-Paris route and that there are many other routes which are capable of yielding equally good results.

As a result, however, of close practical acquaintanceship with the working of several of the present air lines, I am convinced that a better route could not have been chosen, and that it possesses inherent advantages not to be found elsewhere. In the first place it is about Lord Gorell.

the right length for severity of test, the wide strip of water necessitates a high standard of reliability and the rapidly fluctuating weather conditions along the whole route absolutely compel the rapid development of the two great guardian services of aviation, namely, meteorology and wireless telegraphy and telephony. In addition the two termini and the general operations on the route are controlled by different countries with different ideas and methods, and no doubt much of the progress that has been made is due to the mutually instructive effect obtained by such an arrangement. Regarded as an experimental laboratory for the instruction of designers, constructors and operators, an international route is almost bound to be of far greater value than any purely national one.

From a commercial standpoint also the London-Paris route has very great advantages. The actual journey by land and water with its changes, delays and vexatious examinations, is rendered far more troublesome than its mere length would indicate, and very few people who have experienced the convenience and speed that can be obtained on this route in any reasonably suitable aeroplane will feel inclined to revert to the old means of travel.

Further, the number of potential passengers is enormous and in addition to the subjects of the two countries there are the scores of thousands of travellers and visitors from every country in the world who yearly pass between the two capitals. Many of these gain their first experience of air travel between London and Paris and it is highly probable that they would not have the opportunity of obtaining it elsewhere. Consequently, but for this route being open we should lose the services of a great number of important and unpaid missionaries, who, if satisfied, will secure for us an ever increasing number of passengers apart from the value of their propaganda work to the general cause of British aviation abroad.

There are, of course, hundreds of routes within the Empire that could be opened up to air traffic with advantage, but it is considered that success in these will best be assured by first hammering out the many technical and commercial difficulties on our own doorstep, and the Paris-London route for the various reasons given is in the author's opinion specially suitable for this purpose.

The question that next arises is as to whom the subsidy should be given, and the decision to increase the number of firms on the London--Paris route from two to three has been somewhat criticised. This audience does not need to be told of the remarkable success of the British companies in 1921, and they and their supporters can be excused for feeling a little unhappy at the addition to their number bearing in mind the total number of passengers likely to be available next year. Such feeling of uneasiness will, however, in my opinion be completely dissipated if the question is regarded in its wider aspect.

What are the objects in view for which the subsidy is granted? As I see them, their order is: firstly, to promote and encourage British aerial transport undertakings and particularly in order that they shall be enabled to put up a fight against the very powerful and heavily subsidised competition of the French; and, secondly, to help us keep in existence some of the very valuable designing and constructional staffs we had in 1918. But, behind all this, is the real and vital question of the value of a commercial aviation industry in connection with the defence of the country. Progress in flying generally and especially in connection with the design of machines

x 17160

B

and engines, depends largely upon actual flying experience and already we see most of the flying all over the world being done by commercial aircraft. Progress in designing military aircraft is, therefore, to an important extent directly dependent upon the rate of evolution of the commercial side. Further, and this is of vital importance, it is considered that progress can only be continuous if the ranks of aeronautical engineers are constantly replenished with new blood.

Why is it that the design of British ships, turbines, locomotives, internal combustion engines and big electrical plant has progressed with ever increasing vigour during the last few decades and that these products of our shops and yards are to be found in every part of the globe? It is because each of the branches of engineering concerned with the design and manufacture of these things holds out attractive commercial prospects to the brains of the next generation. and thus have come into being the various important professions of naval architects, civil, mechanical, electrical and automobil engineers, whose serried ranks wage ceaseless war for efficiency and progress.

It is hardly possible that the profession of aeronautical engineering can be built up on the requirements of military aircraft alone, so that it may well be that the future superiority of our naval and military air fleets will depend mainly upon the growth of commercial aviation, although the actual difference between civil and military aircraft may be as great as that between a "Hood" and a Mauretania."

66

The nation is beginning to realise that our position as a naval and military power is undergoing a radical change, and that without adequate air power we cannot expect to maintain the Empire. France and Germany both realise this, and at the moment the French are actively staking out their claims on every airway of importance on a vast field bounded by Brussels, London, Warsaw, Northern Africa and Constantinople, whilst Germany is concentrating on research and experiment on a most extensive scale. Once the latter is free to establish air fleets for service abroad she will undoubtedly make strenuous efforts to become the greatest air power in Europe, if not in the world. We cannot disguise the fact that technically and geographically Germany is in the strongest possible position for accomplishing this purpose, and we, undoubtedly, must think of the day when German air lines will radiate from Berlin over the whole of Europe and probably a part of Asia in addition. Already one of the largest firms of aircraft manufacturers in Germany has concluded an agreement with the Russian Government whereby they jointly run a very large factory in St. Petersburg and halve the profits.

Germany knows, and France knows, that the future history of Europe will depend, to a very considerable extent, on the distribution of aerial power, and if we are to retain anything like our present position it is absolutely imperative that we develop our commercial air fleets by every means at our disposal. Cutting down our expenditure on the Air Force and commercial aviation may render possible some trifling reduction in the income tax, but that will be of little comfort if, as a result of the next war, the income itself disappears.

This is rather a long digression, but it all relates to the question of the number of firms to be subsidised, and I think this audience will agree that all the objects in view will be furthered by the addition of suitable firms to the list of operating companies. Even looked at from the narrowest standpoint the possible loss of a few pasengers by Col. Bristow.